Description: The average divorce rate for counties that voted for Trump is significantly higher than Clinton counties. Marriage rates, however, are virtually identical.

Observation: The average divorce rate for counties that voted for Trump is significantly higher than Clinton’s (4.05 per 1,000 people vs. 3.50 with a 96.00 confidence). Marriage rates, however, are virtually identical (1% higher for Clinton counties, though statistically insignificant). The previous “Illuminating America” entry for divorce rates1 has been updated to include the new logarithmic regression model (county-level divorce rates explain 23.1% of the 2016 election result).

 

1Rank of each variable based on ability to predict the 2016 election; 2Variable name; 3Percentage of counties that have data coverage; 4GOP and 5DEM variable averages; 6Confidence of difference between variable averages;  7Regression type (linear, exponential, power, or logarithmic); 8Correlation between variable and Trump vote; 9R-squared value.

Methods and data: County-level divorce rates are taken from the National Center for Family & Marriage Research with the Center for Family and Demographic Research2. County-level 2016 election results were compiled by Charted Territory by visiting each state’s Secretary of State web page. The data were compiled and visualized using Microsoft Excel3.

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  1. https://chartedterritory.us/2018/08/27/illuminating-america-divorce-a-poor-predictor-for-2016-election/
  2. https://www.bgsu.edu/ncfmr/resources/data/original-data/county-level-marriage-divorce-data-2010.html
  3. https://products.office.com/en-us/excel

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